As possessions were being over-estimated, it was theorized that the value of. 44 had become outdated, suggesting that possessions were now being overestimated. Two years ago, Matt Femrite of Nylon Calculus spent time showing that the coefficient of. This idea is rather straightforward as this suggest six percent of free throws are And-1’s, missed three-point attempts, technical, flagrant, clear path, or “Away from the Play” fouls. The idea is that if we knew the number of free throws, along with defensive rebounds, field goal attempts, and so forth, and we assume that made field goals terminate possessions rendering made “And-1” free throws as non-possession ending, then roughly 44% of free throws actually potentially terminate possessions. 44 was used to help approximate the number of possessions when using box score stats. Through some detailed analysis performed during the same era, a value of. Slight Detour on the “44”Īs the analytic was developed several years ago, the ability to trawl through play-by-play made it fairly difficult for analysts to correctly count the number of scoring attempts. I personally prefer just calling it a scoring attempt. It has many names and causes a little confusion between analysts from time to time. Some folks call this true shooting attempts. Some folks call this scoring possessions. We take half of the number of points scored by a player and divide it by the number of possessions that result in a chance at scoring. For the uninitiated, the formula is given asĪs a quick refresher, the idea of true shooting percentage is simple. Four years ago, Justin Willard of Nylon Calculus gave a nice introduction to TS%. It’s been around for roughly 15 years, and maybe more to some savvy analysts, and has been discussed quite frequently over the years. True shooting percentage (TS%) isn’t a new concept by any means. However, with the power of hindsight, we know how to better measure scoring efficiency thanks to true shooting percentage. If we were to have a discussion on efficiency 20 years ago, let’s call it the Allen Iverson era, we would have called Harden’s performance highly efficient as he only had taken 19 field goal attempts, identifying as a whopping 2.26 points per field goal attempt a dream to the New York Times when they posted Allen Iverson’s 41 points on 36 field goals as dominant. It wasn’t the 43 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists that was the most impressive stat of the night, but rather the fact that Harden scored 43 points to spite making only 8 field goals. On December 31st, James Harden dropped yet another 40+ points triple double on the Memphis Grizzlies in a 113 – 101 victory in Houston.
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